Which of the following values of the correlation coefficient implies that the value of the dependent variable decreases as the value of the independent variable increases?
-.2
The following correlation coefficient values come from five different linear regression models. Which model “fits” the data the best?
-1
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What is a tracking signal used for?
To identify forecast bias
Suppose that Sally’s company uses exponential smoothing to make forecasts. Further suppose that last period’s demand forecast was for 20,000 units and last period’s actual demand was 21,000 units. Sally’s company uses a smoothing constant (α) equal to 40%. What should be the forecast for this period?
20,400
Suppose that Jane’s company uses exponential smoothing to make forecasts. Further suppose that last period’s demand forecast was for 500 units and last period’s actual demand was 480 units. In addition, yesterday Jane found out that this period’s actual demand will be for 550 units. Jane’s company uses an α value of .20. Today, Jane’s boss asked her to prepare a forecast for this period. What should that forecast be?
510
A firm has the following order history over the last 6 months.
72.5
What is the mean absolute deviation of the following forecasts?
41
What is the mean absolute deviation and mean squared error of the following forecast
17,316
When is exponential smoothing equivalent to the “naïve” approach to forecasting?
α = 1
Consider the demand data listed below. What is the 4-month moving average forecast for June?
14,500
Suppose that you want to set up a 3-month weighted moving average forecasting system. You want the weights to be percentages (that add to 100%). Furthermore, you want weights for the most recent two months to be equal but you want each of those weights to be twice as large as the weight for the oldest month. What should the weight be for the oldest month?
20%
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing (α = .2) to develop a demand forecast for period 3. Assume the forecast for the initial period is 5. What is the forecast?
6.12
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Which of the following forecasting methods would be most accurate if demand were rapidly decreasing?
3-month moving average
Suppose that you are using the exponential smoothing forecasting method, and this period’s forecast (Ft) was 100% accurate (i.e., no error). If α = .5, which of the following is definitely true?
Next periods forecast equals this periods actual
A firm has had the following order history over the last 4 months:
128.00
What is the mean absolute deviation of the following forecasts?
5
What is the mean squared error of the following forecasts?
3174
What is the mean squared error of the following forecasts?
42
Suppose that you are using exponential smoothing with α = 0.5 and your initial forecast 5 months ago was for 100 units. If the actual demand last month was 0 units, which of the following is definitely true?
We need more information to determine this month’s forecast
Suppose that you are using the four-period simple moving average method to forecast sales, and sales have been increasing by 20% every period. How will your forecasts perform?
Forecasts will be lower than actual
Suppose that you are using the four-period simple moving average method to forecast sales, and sales have been increasing by 40% every period. How will your forecasts perform?
Forecasts will be increasing by 40.0% every period
Suppose that you are using the naïve forecasting method with trend to forecast sales. If sales have been increasing by 40% per month, and this month’s sales amounted to $1200, what would your forecast be for next month?
1680
Suppose that you are using the naïve forecasting method with trend to forecast sales. Sales have been increasing by 10% per week. Two weeks ago, sales amounted to $100. What should your forecast be for this week?
121
Suppose that you are using the simple mean to make a forecast. This period’s forecast was equal to 200 units, and it was based on 5 periods of demand. This period’s actual demand was 300 units. What is your forecast for next period?
217
Suppose that you are using the simple mean to make a forecast. This period’s forecast was equal to 1000 units, and it was based on 99 periods of demand. This period’s actual demand was 0 units. What is your forecast for next period?
990
A firm has the following order history over the last 6 months.
81.25
Which of the following is not a step in Forecasting Seasonality?
Divide this year’s average seasonal demand by each average seasonal index
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing (α = .1) to develop a demand forecast for period 3. Assume the forecast for the initial period is 500. What is the forecast?
479
Which of the following is the simplest forecasting method?
Naïve
Which of the following would not be a consideration for selecting a forecasting software package?
Does the supplier support a local conference?
Combined forecasting involves a rule that
the forecasting methods should be different
Which of the following is not typically done jointly by CPFR trading partners?
raise capital
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____________________ is a collaborative process between two trading partners that establishes formal guidelines for joint forecasting and planning.
Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)
“Inside information” is most likely garnered through which of the following forecasting methods?
Delphi
Which of the following is not one of the nine steps utilized in the most complete form of CPFR?
create separate business plans
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