4. Suppose that you are using the simple mean to make a forecast. This period’s forecast was equal to 100 units, and it was based on 6 periods of demand. This period’s actual demand was 86 units. What is your forecast for next period?

A) 98

B) 100

C) 93

D) 86

E) Not enough information is given to answer the question.

1. A causal research model is based on the assumption that

A) the independent variable is related to the dependent variable

B) there is a relationship between the time series and the dependent variable

C) the variable being forecast is related to other variables in the environment

D) there is a relationship between the time series and the independent variable

E) the information is contained in a time series of data

C) the variable being forecast is related to other variables in the environment

5. Suppose that you are using the four-period simple moving average method to forecast

sales, and sales have been decreasing by 10% every period. How will your forecasts perform?

A) Forecasts will be lower than actual.

B) Forecasts will be higher than actual.

C) Forecasts will equal actual.

D) Forecasts will be increasing.

E) Forecasts will be decreasing by 2.5% every period.

B) Forecasts will be higher than actual.

6. Suppose that you are using the four-period weighted moving average forecasting method to forecast sales and you know that sales will be increasing every period for the foreseeable future. What of the following would be the best set of weights to use (listed in order from the most recent period to four periods ago, respectively)?

A) 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25

B) 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, 0.10

C) 1.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

D) 0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40

E) 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00

The following sales figures show actual sales over the identified time period. What can be determined by comparing a simple mean forecast and a six month moving average forecast?

December 4000

January 5000

February 4000

March 4500

April 5500

May 5000

A) moving average develops a smoother forecast

B) 4.7, 5

C) 4.7, 4

D) 4,4

E) 4, 4.7

C) Minimizes sum of squared errors

10. In linear regression, an r2 of .984 implies what?

A) 98.4% of the variability of the independent variable is explained by the dependent

variable

B) 98.4% of the variability of the dependent variable is explained by the independent

variable

C) 1.6% of the variability of the independent variable is explained by the dependent

variable

D) 1.6% of the variability of the dependent variable is explained by the independent

variable

E) 99.2% of the variability of the dependent variable is explained by the independent

variable

B) 98.4% of the variability of the dependent variable is explained by the independent

variable

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19. Which of the following would not be a consideration for selecting a forecasting software package?

A) How easy is the package to learn?

B) Is it possible to implement new methods?

C) Do you require repetitive forecasting?

D) Does the supplier support a local conference?

E) Is there any local support?

D) Does the supplier support a local conference?

16. Suppose that Jane’s company uses exponential smoothing to make forecasts. Further suppose that last period’s demand forecast was for 500 units and last period’s actual demand was 480 units. In addition, yesterday Jane found out that this period’s actual demand will be for 550 units. Jane’s company uses an α value of .20. Today, Jane’s

boss asked her to prepare a forecast for this period. What should that forecast be?

A) 504

B) 496

C) 510

D) 484

E) 550

20. ____________________ is a collaborative process between two trading partners that establishes formal guidelines for joint forecasting and planning.

A) Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)

B) Supply Chain Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (SCPFR)

C) Supply Chain Optimization (SCO)

D) Collaborative Creation of Guidelines (CCG)

E) Joint Planning and Forecasting (JPP)

A) Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)

24. A cycle is typically the most difficult data pattern to predict. A) True

B) False

29. Joe’s Equipment Distributors sells “Low and Loud” brand lawnmowers. Total demand in 2002 is expected to be 2000 units. Given the historical sales figures listed below, derive a forecast for each quarter in 2002.

1999 2000 2001

Fall 50 80 120

Winter 150 450 510

Spring 500 600 700

Summer 400 490 610

A) Fall = 104.5, Winter = 451, Spring = 790.5, Summer = 654

B) Fall = 83.3, Winter = 370, Spring = 600, Summer = 500

C) Fall = 54.6.5, Winter = 118.1, Spring = 2808.3, Summer =1941.9

D) Fall = 500, Winter = 500, Spring = 500, Summer = 500

A) Fall = 104.5, Winter = 451, Spring = 790.5, Summer = 654

30. Cover Me, Inc. sells umbrellas in three cities. Management assumes that annual rainfall is the primary determinant of umbrella sales, and it wants to generate a linear regression equation to estimate potential sales in other cities. what is the regression equation?

Rainfall X Sales Y

City A 36in 2300

City B 30in 2000

City C 12in 800

A) Y = 1.04X

B) Y=26.3+64.8X

C) Y = 50.00 + 63.46X

D) None of the above

A causal research model is based on the assumption that

A) the independent variable is related to the dependent variable

B) there is a relationship between the time series and the dependent variable

C) the variable being forecast is related to other variables in the environment

D) there is a relationship between the time series and the independent variable

E) the information is contained in a time series of data

Suppose that you are using the four-period simple moving average method to forecast

sales, and sales have been decreasing by 10% every period. How will your forecasts

perform?

A) Forecasts will be lower than actual.

B) Forecasts will be higher than actual.

C) Forecasts will equal actual.

D) Forecasts will be increasing.

E) Forecasts will be decreasing by 2.5% every period.

Suppose that you are using the four-period weighted moving average forecasting

method to forecast sales and you know that sales will be increasing every period for the

foreseeable future. What of the following would be the best set of weights to use

(listed in order from the most recent period to four periods ago, respectively)?

A) 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25

B) 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, 0.10

C) 1.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

D) 0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40

E) 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00

In linear regression, an r^2

of .984 implies what?

A) 98.4% of the variability of the independent variable is explained by the dependent

variable

B) 98.4% of the variability of the dependent variable is explained by the independent

variable

C) 1.6% of the variability of the independent variable is explained by the dependent

variable

D) 1.6% of the variability of the dependent variable is explained by the independent

variable

E) 99.2% of the variability of the dependent variable is explained by the independent

variable

____________________ is a collaborative process between two trading partners that

establishes formal guidelines for joint forecasting and planning.

A) Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)

B) Supply Chain Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (SCPFR)

C) Supply Chain Optimization (SCO)

D) Collaborative Creation of Guidelines (CCG)

E) Joint Planning and Forecasting (JPP)

A cycle is typically the most difficult data pattern to predict.

A) True

B) False