RISK EVALUATION AND DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES
Weekly Learning Outcomes
This week students will
- Evaluate expected value of an action.
- Create an optimal decision strategy.
- Justify the essential decisions that will be made based on data and risk analysis.
- Create a proposal for a suggested course of action using data analytics and decision-making skills.
Welcome to the final week of BUS625: Data and Decision Analytics! In your final discussion forum you will use your data analytics skills to assist an organization in choosing a product to market in the upcoming holiday season. In your final project, you will continue to focus on your MBA Case Study project. Using the concepts and skills learned in this course, you will gather and analyze real-world data to assist Walmart in their decision to expand to a new region.
International Labour Organization. (n.d.). ILOSTAT. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/ilostat • This webpage provides access to International Labour Organization databases and may be useful in your Walmart Expansion Analysis Final Project this week. Accessibility Statement does not exist.
The World Bank. (n.d.). DataBank. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx • This webpage provides access to World Bank databases and may be useful in your Walmart Expansion Analysis Final Project this week. Accessibility Statement does not exist.
The World Bank. (n.d.). Doing business data. Retrieved from http://www.doingbusiness.org/en/data • This webpage provides access to World Bank economic data and may be useful in your Walmart Expansion Analysis Final Project this week. Accessibility Statement does not exist.
Profit Payoff Decision Role Play Activity [WLOs: 1, 2, 3] [CLO: 5]. 1st Post Due by Day 3. Prior to beginning work on this discussion forum, read Chapter 24 of your textbook. Imagine that you are a successful business executive for a toy company, ChoiceToys. You are tasked to market one of the two new toys for the upcoming holiday season based on an optimal decision strategy. As the data analyst, you will be responsible for providing the expected profit payoff and associated probabilities.
Part 1 (Due by Day 3) In your initial post, using the scenario below, you will be acting as the data executive speaking to a data analyst. You will need to speak to the data analyst and get more information so you can develop a decision analysis. Given the information the data analyst has provided, what more data do you think you need to create a decision analysis?
Toy 1 is being introduced to the market for the first time by ChoiceToys with no market competition. ChoiceToys believes that competitors will not be able to bring a similar toy to the market for this upcoming holiday season. You are not sure how the toy will be received by the consumers and there is equal chance that it will be highly successful, successful, or not successful. You will need to determine what the expected profit payoff will be and provide this in your scenario. Toy 2 has been in the market, is known to consumers, and is in demand; however, it has two other competitors in the marketplace. If marketed, ChoiceToys will be one of the three companies selling this toy in the market in the upcoming holiday season. You will have to determine the profit payoff for Toy 2 respectively for a highly successful, successful, and not successful case. You will also need to determine the probability that Toy 2 will be highly successful in the market and equal chances for being successful or not successful in the market.
Part 2 (Due by Day 6)
As a data analyst, you need to use decision analysis techniques to recommend decision alternatives or
optimal decisions based on expected profit payoff for the upcoming holiday season. Respond to one of
your peers’ initial posts, and complete the following:
• Identify the sequence of actions you need to take to start this decision process.
• Explain each sequence and justify why it will help you with your decision.
• Propose a risk profile for each choice.
Walmart Expansion Analysis [WLOs: 3, 4] [CLOs: 2, 3, 5, 6]. Due by Day 7. Prior to beginning work on this assignment, review Chapter 24 of your textbook and the Walmart Case Study. You will also need to access Walmart’s most recent annual report from Walmart’s Financial Information page. In this final project you will continue to build on your Walmart Case study work from previous courses. Imagine that you have been hired as a data analyst for Walmart. The Walmart executive team has asked you to gather data that will assist them in determining if this foreign market is a viable option for a Walmart expansion. You will continue to research the same region you have chosen to expand to in your previous MBA courses. Please refer to the Walmart Case Study for the list of available regions. Your Final Project will be comprised of two parts. In Part 1 you will be required to gather and analyze data for your case study paper. In Part 2 you will need to create a 3- to 5-minute video presentation using the data gathered in your paper to make your recommendation to the Walmart executive team.
Walmart Expansion Analysis Final Project, Part 1: Walmart Case Study Paper (17 points)
You have been tasked with collecting and analyzing key data points that will assist Walmart in their decision to expand to your chosen region. In Part I, you will gather data from various sources, use the tools learned throughout this class to analyze data, and determine the best way to present this data to the Walmart executive team. Finally, you will make a recommendation on whether or not this foreign market is a viable option for a Walmart expansion. Note: It is OK to not recommend an expansion to your chosen region. Just be sure to justify your recommendation.
Step 1: Data Collection As a data analyst, you will be required to locate data from multiple sources. It is recommended that you use the Mergent Database in the University of Arizona Global Campus Library, the Business Insight Global database in the University of Arizona Global Campus Library, and Walmart’s latest Annual Report to begin your data collection. These databases should serve as a guide for your research. You are expected to identify additional data sources that will be useful in your analysis.
Accessing Mergent database:
You can locate current Walmart data from the Mergent database in the University of Arizona Global
Campus Library. Review the Mergent Online: Accessing Mergent Online for instructions on accessing
and searching the database. Search for “Walmart” and select “Walmart Inc.”
Navigate to the Company Financials tab. You may want to review the Income Statement for items such
as net sales, operating expenses, projected income, etc. It is recommended that you review data from
at least the last five years.
If you wish, you can export this data into an excel document by selecting the “Download” option in the
upper right corner of the Mergent page.
Accessing Business Insights: Global database:
To access the Business Insight Global database, access the University of Arizona Global Campus
Library and select to the “Find Articles and More”. Next, select “Databases A-Z”, then find the “Business
Insights: Global” database. In the search bar, type “Walmart”, ensuring the “Company” tab is selected
from the dropdown menu. You may want to review items such as gross profit, interest expense, net
income, etc.
Business Insights: Global also has some information on Walmart in particular countries that may be
useful in your research. To search, type Walmart or Wal-mart into the search bar at the top of the
Business Insights: Global homepage, ensuring “Country” is selected from the drop-down menu. This
will provide results that cover Walmart in areas such as China, Brazil, Chile, India, Puerto Rico,
Argentina, and Canada. You may wish to gather data for countries that are closest to your region for
comparison.
You will likely need to gather more data to make your case. You are encouraged to seek out additional
data points that will assist you in your analysis. Other data points you may want to consider include, but
are not limited to
• Gross national income
• Population and demographic data
• Key economic metrics, including current economic status, inflation, etc.
• Labor market data, including average wage, unemployment rate, cost of living, etc.
Market environment
• Foreign exchange
• Credit environment outlook
Here are some suggested databases to get you started. These databases may not have all the
information you need to make a full evaluation. You may need to conduct your own research to find
useful databases that house the data you need to conduct your analysis.
• International Labour Organization’s ILOSTAT
• The World Bank’s Doing Business Data
• The World Bank’s DataBank
Step 2: Analyzing the Data Now that you have gathered your data, you will need to determine the best way to compile the data for analysis. Using the tools and skills you have learned in this course, create graphs and tables that will assist you in making sense of the data. You will use these tables to assess the data and support your analysis.
In your paper,
• Summarize the background of the country or region, including what makes it unique and why it
is a viable option for Walmart expansion.
• Assess the data sets and include any charts or graphs used in your evaluation.
o Measure outlook sales, interest, and other trends to make a determination on the
regional outlook. Is the outlook improving, remaining stable, or deteriorating? For
example, how will this expansion affect sales trends, interest cost trends, etc.?
o Calculate whether Walmart will have favorable or unfavorable currency translation
adjustments. For example, how strong is the country’s currency against the U.S. dollar?
o Create revenue projections and sales projections based on the data. Consider the
currently translation adjustments in your projection.
o Propose a recommended course of action based on your interpretation of the data.
The Walmart Expansion Analysis Final Project, Part 1: Walmart Case Study Paper
Walmart Expansion Analysis Final Project, Part 2: Video Presentation (5 points)
Part 2 of this Final Project is a video submission. Imagine that you are a data analyst presenting your data findings to a group of Walmart executives who are interested in the project. Your presentation will include information from your paper but should be given in a presentation format. Please use Screencast-O-Matic or a similar tool for your video presentation. Review the Screencast-OMatic Quick-Start Guide for details on how to use this tool. All submissions require an upload of the video to the classroom. Submission of a link to a video does not fulfill the submission requirements. Review the Canvas Video Submission Instructions video, following the “How to Upload a Pre-Recorded Video into the Classroom” for guidance on uploading your video.
In your recording, • Introduce yourself to the executive team and explain your role as a data analyst. • Create a visual presentation to support your findings and recommendation. • Summarize your findings of the data set. • Recommend a course of action to the executive team based on your interpretation of the data.
